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Law, culture, and Catholicism...up in smoke!

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail '08: Thompson-Hunter

This is an open thread for people to make predictions and endorsements in the comments. I know we've got some RonPaulites among our readers. I just wanted to know whom everyone supports and why.

I'll start with my brilliant analysis:

Huckabee's rise is in large part a reaction against Giuliani by social conservatives, coupled with a distrust of Romney as a true conservative (as opposed to a flip-flopper who says what he thinks he needs to say to get elected). Social conservatives, to whom Giuliani is unacceptable, demonstrated their muscle by backing Huckabee. Now that Huckabee is being exposed as rather liberal and as having other weaknesses (the whole pardon of the rapist thing), the current Huckabee support (which, I'd argue, is a tacit rejection of both Giuliani and Romney, but not of Thompson or McCain) will transfer to Fred Thompson (my current favorite) or John McCain. If it does, whichever of those two can ride that wave should win the nomination and be well-situated going into the general election. If it doesn't, Republicans will be left with a candidate (Huckabee or Giuliani) who alienates a large segment of the base, or with Romney, with whom neither social-, nor fiscal-, nor national security- conservatives feel altogether comfortable.

I'm with Fred in '08.