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Law, culture, and Catholicism...up in smoke!

Monday, November 06, 2006

Casimir's Michigan Voter Guide

Governor - DeVos. 'nuff said, besides, if I say anymore, people might think I'm not a conservative.

US Senate - Bouchard. Michigan could use some cajun-style crooked instead of that lump that has been in that chair (really, what has Stabenow done for anyone?)

Attorney General - Cox. (Dems need to blame their own party for nominating Williams, and the other candidates are the sort that can make one tempted to think that two party system is a good thing).

Sec. of State - Land. (everybody loves her and for good reason -- but I still think she should implement ).

Board of Education.
Erwin Williams (give the libertarians a chance!) besides, one look at the candidates in this race reveals them all look pretty sleazy. This position is important, don't get me wrong, but I'd advocate a tabula rasa approach to the educational disaster otherwise known as Michigan education system (albeit with some exceptions, the higher ed system does quite alright -- it's the rest that is a mess).

U of M regent
Just vote for the libertarians and the Tax Payer people. If you still have people to vote for, put the Natural Law Party people in.

(Other Universities)
Do the same.

Prop 1. Yes (this speaks for itself -- but it also has a secondary effect: it prevents state park fees from funding welfare, general fund, etc)... Granted, it will make the park system into a mini-bureaucratic empire rife with fifedoms, but how is that different from the way it is now?

Prop 2. Yes. c'mon people! the 60s are over. get over it. besides, anyone who honestly believes they aren't programmatically at an advantage (especially in private industry) by being a woman or other minority is an idiot, or so blind that they should be on disability anyway.

Prop 3. Yes, kill the pigeons. Ever had em in stew? (they are really tasty). Besides, this has been legal in Michigan for three years. If you fall prey to the rhetoric of this issue and vote No, you should be on the hunting list next.

Prop 4. Yes, give Michigan a chance to repeat the good news of the poletown case reversal.

Prop 5. No. This bill is a nightmare in legislative clothing. Say no and let them figure out a better way to do the funding shift than the way proposed (shift retirement costs to the state general fund).

I'm not making any local recommendations, nor any for State Supreme Court, nor even any more for US Congress.


Tradesports Contracts on the MI Gov Race predict Granholm win (I think that's what this says):

alt="Price for Michigan Governor Race at TradeSports.com"
title="Price for Michigan Governor Race at TradeSports.com" border="0">

here's the graph on the DeVos win:

alt="Price for Michigan Governor Race at TradeSports.com"
title="Price for Michigan Governor Race at TradeSports.com" border="0">

Maybe somebody more versed in futures trading can correct me, but I think high price on a contract means more likely, while lower price means less likely?

Maybe I have that backwards.

Sadly, the Senate seat looks worse:

alt="Price for Michigan Senate Race at TradeSports.com"
title="Price for Michigan Senate Race at TradeSports.com" border="0">

You know, however, as I look at these and the volumes, I think perhaps that these carts may show some traders taking advantage of hopeful betters. I wish I understood what these numbers meant better. But, I do get that volume on these is low, so I suspect they aren't as predictive as other contracts on tradesports.

Connecticut Senate (field) is trading at 94+, and that would be a favorable bet on Lieberman, so I think I understand the numbers -- but I think Michigan is screwy because there aren't many contracts (the connecticut race has well over ten times the volume of the michigan one).