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Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Ernesto Update (1100 EDT TUE AUG 29 2006)

000
WTNT35 KNHC 291431
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006

1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF ERNESTO NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...SOME STRENGTHENING STILL EXPECTED...AVE MARIA TOWN AND COLLIER COUNTY ON ALERT...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OFBONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISISSUED FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUEDBY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 170MILES...275 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 180MILES...285 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEARING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAINS AND SQUALLS WILL BE ARRIVING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. RESIDENTS OF IMMOKALEE AND WORKERS BUILDING AVE MARIA TOWN SHOULD RUN LIKE HELL FOR COVER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES FLORIDA. THESE WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DESTROY MASSIVE CHAPELS, DORMITORIES AND CENTERS FOR LITURGICAL RENEWAL. SMALL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR COLLIER COUNTY AND RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ADVISED TO CRAWL INTO THEIR RESPECTIVE ARKS TO RIDE OUT THE STORM. PIZZA WILL BE PROVIDED IN 20 MINUTES OR LESS AFTER ERNESTO REACHES COLLIER COUNTY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELSCAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. LOCAL AUTHORITIES IN AVE MARIA TOWN WILL BE PROVIDING ARKS TO RESIDENT WORKERS. LOCAL RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO BRING TWO OF EVERYTHING WITH THEM ON THE ARKS. WHALE ACTIVITY GREAT. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO BOARD ARKS RATHER THAN RISK BEING SWALLOWED BY LAND BOUND WHALES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF ERNESTO OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAHAMAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WICKED WITCH OF THE EAST HAS NOT BEEN SIGHTED.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...23.3 N...79.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500PM EDT.

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